TEHRAN – A professor of political studies at the University of Ottawa says that the Ukraine war would determine the fate of the world order.

“The war in Ukraine would determine not only the future of Ukraine but also the future world order,” Ivan Katchanovski tells the Tehran Times.

“The future world order depends on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war,” Katchanovski notes.

Katchanovski, who was visiting scholar at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, is of the opinion that Moscow could challenge the U.S.-led world order by invading Ukraine, which is a U.S. client state. 

“The West could have prevented this war by offering Ukraine EU membership prospects in exchange for neutrality and implementation of the Minsk agreement.” “While the Western countries followed the U.S. in opposing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many countries in Asia, the Middle East (West Asia), Africa, and Latin America remained neutral or in some cases even supported Russia to various extents,” Katchanovski adds.

He says, “Such a global divide might be a sign of a new multipolar world order that can emerge as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.” 

Following is the text of the interview:

Q:   How do you evaluate the Ukraine war? Do you expect a nuclear clash?

A: The Russia-Ukraine war was not inevitable and could have been avoided or prevented by Russia, Ukraine, and the West. Russia launched this war of choice, which is illegal under international law. Putin justified the Russian invasion based on false claims of Ukraine’s NATO accession, which was in fact unlikely in the foreseeable future, the genocide of ethnic Russians in Donbas, nuclear weapons development by Ukraine, and Nazis sharing power in Ukraine. Zelensky failed to prevent the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict into a devastating war by denying that possibility of the Russian invasion was real. He abandoned the Minsk agreements to end the civil war in Donbas and his election promises and pursued NATO membership and nationalist policies in Ukraine. Western countries could have prevented this war by offering Ukraine EU membership prospects in exchange for neutrality and implementation of the Minsk agreement. They also backed the violent Ukrainian government overthrow that started this conflict, which could have escalated into the Russia-Ukraine war already in 2014 and was drastically escalated by Russia this year when it launched the war in Ukraine. Possibility.

After its apparent failure of the regime change in Ukraine or attempts to force Zelenskyy to sign a peace deal largely on Russian terms, Russia now aims to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Donbas and annex other Eastern and Southern regions that it already has taken or intends to take by military force. The use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine or a nuclear war between NATO and Russia is extremely unlikely.

Q:  Biden has said that the U.S. will not send Ukraine rockets that can reach Russia. What are the implications of such a decision?

“Sanctions are not effective in changing the policies of Russia and various other countries on issues that they regard as crucial.”A: The Biden’s decision to not supply long-range rockets that can strike targets relatively deep inside Russia is aimed at preventing the launching of these U.S. weapons by the Ukrainian forces against targets in Russia. Russia publicly threatens to retaliate militarily if such attacks by the U.S. weapons would take place in Russia. Ukraine already has similar Soviet-type multiple rocket launchers and Tochka-U missiles that can hit Russia. The Ukrainian forces so far used artillery, helicopters, and drones to attack weapons and oil storage facilities and shell locations in neighboring regions of Russia.

Q:  What are the fallouts of sanctions on Russia? Do you think the sanction can change Moscow's policy in Ukraine?

A: Economic sanctions had a negative long-term effect on the Russian economy. But such sanctions are not effective in changing the policies of Russia and various other countries on issues that they regard as crucial. Threats of such economic sanctions did not prevent the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and their imposition failed to stop Russia from waging the war in Ukraine.

Q:  Do you predict other states in Europe to be engaged in the Ukraine war?

A: Leaders of NATO and the EU countries publicly stated that they won’t deploy troops in Ukraine in combat roles and that they won’t create and enforce a no-fly zone in Ukraine because this would mean a real possibility of a war with nuclear Russia. Russia publicly threatened to use military force against the Polish military if they would be deployed in Western Ukraine even on a humanitarian or peacekeeping mission or if Poland or other countries would try to create a no-flight zone in Western Ukraine. 

Q: How could the Ukraine war change the world order? 

A: The war in Ukraine would determine not only the future of Ukraine but also the future world order. The future world order depends on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia openly challenged the U.S.-led world order by invading Ukraine, which it a U.S. client state. While the Western countries followed the U.S. in opposing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America remained neutral or in some cases even supported Russia to various extents. Such a global divide might be a sign of a new multipolar world order that can emerge as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.